Here comes the season!
Opening Day is Monday and baseball fans have probably read about 15 different season previews by now. John Paul Morosi thinks the Royals will win the division, the folks over at Royals Review think the season is already in shambles and most everyone else falls somewhere in between.
For our version of the season preview, we decided to take a look at last year’s team and see who is primed for improvement and who is likely to experience some regression.
Let’s go around the horn.
Catcher
2012: Humberto Quintero + Salvador Perez
2013: Salvador Perez
Expectation: It will be hard for Sherriff Sal to outperform himself, but it should be much easier for him to improve on the .232 average and single home run Quintero mustered in 43 games.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
First Base
2012: Eric Hosmer
2013: Eric Hosmer
Expectation: Hosmer has been tabbed as a breakout candidate by some and a fringe All-Star, but not MVP, by David Schoenfield of ESPN. One thing is for sure, he can’t get much worse than the .232 batting average he posted in 2012.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Second Base
2012: Chris Getz + Johnny Giavotella
2013: Chris Getz (for now)
Expectation: Chris Getz went 6 for 6 earlier this week and that wasn’t even his biggest moment of Spring Training. On March 1, the current record holder for most at-bats without a home run, actually hit one. Alas, none of it counted.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Shortstop
2012: Alicides Escobar
2013: Alicides Escobar
Expectation: In 2011, Esky was one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. In 2012, his offense was stronger than his defense. That’s a tough pill to repeat.
Verdict: Some regression possible
Third Base
2012: Mike Moustakas
2013: Mike Moustakas
Expectation: Moose was hitting .260 with decent power prior to sustaining a knee injury in mid-August. He hit just .201 after that point with almost no power. If he can just return to his pre-August form, a strong season seems likely.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Right Field
2012: Jeff Francoeur
2013: Jeff Francoeur
Expectation: The performance of the Frenchman has been well chronicled. Even he admits he sucked last year. For the shear fact that it’s hard to be worse, he should be better. If not, he’s in the last year of his contract and figures to be easily replaceable.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Center Field
2012: Jarrod Dyson + Lorenzo Cain
2013: Lorenzo Cain
Expectation: A healthy and productive Lorenzo Cain equals a healthy and productive Royals outfield.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Left Field
2012: Alex Gordon
2013: Alex Gordon
Expectation: Per Rany Jazayerli, Alex Gordon produced the 6th most Wins Above Replacement over the last two years. He’s going to be good this year, but it will be hard to be better.
Verdict: Neutral
Designated Hitter
2012: Billy Butler
2013: Billy Butler
Expectation: Bobblehead Curse or not, the Silver Slugger is one of the most consistent players in all of baseball. It says here he’ll be back in 2013 with another 20 home run, 50 double season.
Verdict: Neutral
Starting Pitcher 1
2012: Bruce Chen
2013: James Shields
Expectation: Bruce Chen had a 5.07 ERA in 2012 over 191 innings. Shields 3.89 career ERA would represent a huge improvement.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Starting Pitcher 2
2012: Luke Hochevar
2013: Ervin Santana
Expectation: Santana had the worst year of his career in 2012 and still bested Hochevar’s 5.73 ERA by more than half a run. Hopefully Santana performs more in line with this career numbers, but he’s still likely to outperform his 2012 counterpart if not.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Starting Pitcher 3
2012: Jonathan Sanchez + Jeremy Guthrie
2013: Jeremy Guthrie
Expectation: Guthrie may not match the 3.16 ERA he posted in 91 innings for the Royals at the end of last season, but he only has to exceed the 4.87 combined ERA he and J. Sanchez produced in 2012 to represent improvement.
Verdict: Primed for improvement
Starting Pitcher 4
2012: Luis Mendoza
2013: Wade Davis
Expectation: Mendoza pitched well for the Royals in 2012. This is one of the biggest question marks on the roster, but the Royals hope Davis can match Mendoza’s 2012 production in 2013.
Verdict: Neutral
Starting Pitcher 5
2012: Grab bag (Paulino, Duffy, Teaford, Smith, Odorizzi, etc.)
2013: Luis Mendoza
Expectation: There’s some good and some bad in the comparison above. That figures to be exactly what the Royals will get out of the 5 spot in 2013, particularly after the All-Star break, when Duffy and Paulino return from injury and a few prospects have advanced to AAA.
Verdict: Neutral
Bullpen
2012: Broxton, Holland, Crow, Collins, Herrera, etc.
2013: Holland, Crow, Collins, Herrera, etc.
Expectation: The bullpen was a key strength in 2012 and figures to be one again in 2013. They could improve based on the fact that they won’t be counted on for as many innings, but we have them at neutral for now.
Verdict: Neutral
Overall Record
2012: 72 – 90
2013: TBD
Expectation: The team underperformed its Pythagorean expectations by 2 games last year. For that reason alone, they should improve. Further, 6 of 9 position players can be reasonably expected to improve on their 2012 performances against only 1 likely to regress. An similar ratio exists among the starting pitchers, as 3 of 5 positions should be improved and the others are likely to be neutral.
Verdict: Primed for improvement.
Prediction: The Royals will finish the season with a record of 87 and 75, narrowly missing the playoffs.
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